| 引用本文: | 赵瑞,柴倩雯,李云飞,杨悦.Black-Scholes期权模型在新药研发项目价值评估中的应用[J].中国现代应用药学,2017,34(5):759-765. |
| ZHAO Rui,CHAI Qianwen,LI Yunfei,YANG Yue.Application of Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model to Valuation of New Drug R&D Projects[J].Chin J Mod Appl Pharm(中国现代应用药学),2017,34(5):759-765. |
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| 摘要: |
| 目的 研究实物期权下的Black-Scholes期权定价模型（简称B-S模型）在新药研发项目价值评估中的应用。方法 采用比较法分析传统评价方法中的成本分析法、市场比较法、折现现金流法及实物期权法的优缺点，分别运用DCF法和B-S模型计算新药研发项目价值，并将其结果进行比较。结果 B-S模型计算得到的项目价值比传统DCF法的计算值更大。结论 实物期权中的B-S模型方法在评价项目价值时更能体现项目潜在的管理灵活性价值，其中参数的选取对结果影响较大。 |
| 关键词: 新药研发 实物期权 项目估值 Black-Scholes模型 |
| DOI：10.13748/j.cnki.issn1007-7693.2017.05.031 |
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| Application of Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model to Valuation of New Drug R&D Projects |
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ZHAO Rui1, CHAI Qianwen1, LI Yunfei2, YANG Yue1
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1.School of Business Administration, International Food and Drug Policy and Law Research Center, Shenyang Pharmaceutical University, Shenyang 110016, China;2.Tasly Holding Group, National Main Laboratory of Innovative Chinese Medicine Key Technology, Tianjin 300402, China
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| Abstract: |
| OBJECTIVE To research the application of Black-Scholes pricing model (B-S model) of real options in the evaluation of new drug R&D projects. METHODS The comparison method was applied to analyze advantages and disadvantages between real options and traditional methods, such as cost-based method, market comparable method and DCF. The DCF method and B-S model were used to calculate the value of new drug R&D projects respectively, and the results were compared. RESULTS The value of new drug R&D project calculated by B-S model was larger than that of DCF. CONCLUSION B-S model can reflect the underlying flexibility value of projects effectively, and the choice of parameters will have a great impact on the results. |
| Key words: new drug R&D;real option projects valuation Black-Scholes model |
